Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 22.098768 25.150860 28.436109 32.230971 36.489326 41.115884 46.518766
2024-12-29 17.505102 21.626159 26.398961 32.318105 39.443952 47.727174 58.065785
2025-01-05 15.610472 20.314268 26.019047 33.414880 42.713986 53.980225 68.622056
2025-01-12 13.525086 18.449601 24.675908 33.075408 44.053275 57.849374 76.427826
2025-01-19 11.406670 16.233636 22.568555 31.422866 43.398637 58.941714 80.534430
2025-01-26 10.539845 15.564785 22.376755 32.194000 45.869203 64.113894 90.140379
2025-02-02 9.834922 15.026154 22.275857 33.020235 48.392931 69.419936 100.140128
2025-02-09 8.927054 14.095743 21.524108 32.833261 49.433897 72.686349 107.436807
2025-02-16 8.069109 13.149923 20.655156 32.377652 50.008164 75.263467 113.821153
2025-02-23 7.477708 12.550284 20.236944 32.530836 51.439637 79.090204 122.137846
2025-03-02 7.006630 12.092572 19.987651 32.900108 53.182382 83.418845 131.358170
2025-03-09 6.544639 11.605555 19.647443 33.086582 54.627348 87.338914 140.113803
2025-03-16 6.016714 10.975183 19.048000 32.843558 55.422176 90.368229 147.765202
2025-03-23 5.642641 10.573221 18.787738 33.125035 57.056453 94.763831 157.741856
2025-03-30 5.447766 10.462912 18.996389 34.180101 59.981768 101.299700 171.360936
2025-04-06 5.028960 9.915068 18.416976 33.855734 60.589967 104.135886 179.156268
2025-04-13 4.430177 8.983817 17.099236 32.159968 58.767739 102.896704 180.208556
2025-04-20 4.267848 8.856642 17.196435 32.950249 61.239680 108.848684 193.397072
2025-04-27 4.123896 8.751588 17.322979 33.793546 63.837506 115.113936 207.366914
2025-05-04 3.848831 8.365168 16.900724 33.602809 64.578878 118.235269 216.101270
2025-05-11 3.561543 7.929093 16.352401 33.137239 64.787078 120.425821 223.298634
2025-05-18 3.373294 7.679822 16.143106 33.293774 66.132002 124.649762 234.207675
2025-05-25 3.223962 7.499239 16.053941 33.671029 67.898054 129.684414 246.744171